Flaherty pitched 348 innings over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. In fairness, the Cardinals are correct in their initial thinking. This is a veteran, and he knows what he needs to do. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. All rights reserved. Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . Wainwright, 40, who has played for the Cardinals since reaching the majors in 2005, is a three-time All-Star and twice led the National League in wins (2009 and 2013). By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). A couple of guys are sore but its OK, everything is fine, nothing to worry about, dont know why the media is making a fuss over this, were just being careful, just holding the pitcher back by a day to be on the safe side, hes looking great, hes getting his work in, theres no need to push it. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. Here's how WBC offenses stack up with MLB's best, Scherzer tries to test pitch clock limits, gets balk, Jays 'playing it safe' after Guerrero tweaks knee, PitchCom-tipping: Loud device leaks Twins calls, Eflin's first start after $40M deal impresses Rays, Rangers' Leclerc to miss WBC with neck injury, Rockies' Rodgers may need surgery, '23 at risk, Rojas to withdraw from WBC, stay with Dodgers. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Adam Wainwright was born on the 30th of August, 1981. There are some people that feel Wainwright will join his legendary teammates in Cooperstown at some point in time, a trio of Hall of Famers all departing the Cardinals at the same time. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. This is the first time since 2010 that all three are in . Greinke was dominant for the 2009 Kansas City Royals, winning the league ERA crown (2.16) and leading the AL in WHIP (1.073), and even better for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a ridiculous 1.66 ERA and at one point throwing 43.2 consecutive scoreless innings over six starts. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. According to tracking done by Baseball Reference he faced mostly Double A hitters. But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. His 2.2 WAR, meanwhile, edged him closer to the career standard (73.3). When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. However, not all stories have happy endings. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. Adam Wainwright. Moving to Adam Wainwright, the 40-year-old moved into second in pitching WAR (again, as calculated by Baseball Reference) last season, and that is where he will stay. Well know more about Jacks Comeback after he makes his first two or three pitching appearances in the Florida game. Even having covered the progress of 17 mid- and late-career players in these two installments, there are a handful who have posted JAWS gains that would fit on the leaderboards and about whom people have questions regarding their Hall progress. Hes racked up four seasons worth 67 WAR, plus a fifth at 5.7 and a sixth at 4.9; to improve that peak score substantially, he needs big seasons. Unless Adam Wainwright continues to play for a few more seasons and perform at an elite level, the Hall of Fame may elude him, though he will certainly find his name on the voting ballot when eligible. But what is particularly interesting to examine with regards to Wainwright is that if Wainwright were elected, he would not even be close to the worst starting pitcher in Cooperstown. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Hell need more to get his name in the HOF conversation, namely multiple Cy Young award victories and a pivotal role in a Boston World Series championship. A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). Sabathia has a chance to become the 17th pitcher in history to record 3,000 strikeouts, which would give his candidacy a boost. May need surgery, but were not close to making any kind of decision on that. 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. It's a career that includes 10 All-Star Games, nine Gold Gloves, four Platinum Gloves, two World Series titles and plenty of adulation from the St. Louis area and beyond. Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Godspeed, Waino. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. Even if he does that, hes well short of the JAWS standard or even the 55.7 career WAR of David Ortiz, plus he has the stigma of his 2013 PED suspension to overcome. . Adam's parents had a rocky marriage, and they split up when he was around seven years old. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. . Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. This will undoubtedly hurt Wainwright's bid for the Hall of Fame. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. Were not concerned. (And hes been getting his work in, at least for the most part.) Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. Decade-plus Eagles writer. Me talking about it is going to inflame some people Hes not a Hall of Famer! Wainwright said. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. Waino certainly isn't a National Hall of Famer, but there is an argument for the Cardinals Hall of Fame for sure. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. That seems to be a pretty good baseline.. Terms of Service. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). Actually, it's two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. 34. 1st stage: All good. Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame. pre-2008 adjustment) | 39.5 Peak fWAR | 48.8 fJAWS, +0.3 fJAWS). It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. It hasnt moved him very far in the JAWS rankings, but hes nonetheless seventh among active pitchers behind Greinke, the injured Justin Verlander (60.8), Kershaw, Scherzer, and two other pitchers whove effectively taken zeroes in 2020 and 21, Cole Hamels (48.4) and Flix Hernndez (44.3). He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. 100-70, 2.99 ERA, 1,409 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. By checking this box, I agree to the terms of service and privacy policy of Rogers Media. We didn't recognize that password reset code. Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. Hes endured shoulder miseries and a strained oblique. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. No Gavin Lux -- big problem. {* traditionalSignIn_signInButton *}, Comment and participate in our online community. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. What injury? But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Wainwright went 41-28 with a 4.58 ERA (an ERA+ of 90, or 10 percent below league average) from 2016 through 2019. Actually, its two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Arizona Diamondbacks. Seconds later, told his numbers stack up well to wild card-era pitchers who are either already enshrined or have solid Hall of Fame cases, the famously good-natured Wainwright a night removed from saying he struck out Jeff McNeil looking to leave the bases loaded because I like nostalgia and he wanted to give Mets fans what they want grinned again. Im going to disregard them for now, though all five should (and all but Sabathia probably will) make it eventually. On 30-8-1981 Adam Wainwright (nickname: Adam) was born in Brunswick, Georgia, United States. . 55 votes, 66 comments. Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. It was almost a storybook season for the St. Louis Cardinals as club legends Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina were reunited and looked primed for a deep postseason run. 132-72, 3.34 ERA, 2,005 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. Thats an average of 174 innings per year. Bumgarner has thrown 36 career innings in the World Series and allowed one earned run. Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. Your email address will not be published. For a five-year span from 2007-2011, CC Sabathia was regarded as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and he took three different teams to the postseason, winning a ring with the 2009 Yankees. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. Write some stories about it! Wainwright said. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. Be the first one to comment on this story. Cardinals' Wainwright reaches 2,000 career K's. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. Adam Wainwright K's McCormick. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Todays pitcher will make it more for efficiency. Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. That may be what landed him on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation this year. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. I found Drew. Heres what Bowden wrote: Mozeliak was cautious in his comments and reminded me that the right-hander threw only 36 innings last year. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. . One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright joins Scott Braun, Erik Kratz, Todd Frazier, and AJ Pierzynski to talk about his final season and the legacy he's. Yadier Molina, catcher (58.1 career fWAR (incl. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. FASTBALLS JET ACROSS the baseball atmosphere in this era, booming into catchers' mitts at 100 mph or faster, and amid that sound of speed, there is Adam Wainwright's curveball. His contract with Washington will keep him in a uniform through 2021, and by then, he should have a strong case. Adam Wainwrights hybrid JAWS of 41.6 is a fair amount behind that of Dwight Gooden, and closing a 6.4 point gap is going to be a tall order. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. He went from having a 3.8 WAR in 2021 to 2.8 WAR last year. Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. An error has occurred while trying to update your details. Your login session has expired. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. I think Hall of Fame credentials might change a bit, Wainwright said. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. Flaherty insists hes feeling great this spring. Its Wainwrights final MLB season before retirement, and (mostly) anything goes. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. Pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 4.45 FIP, hes produced a respectable 2.2 WAR, though hes still 0.6 points below the JAWS standard. But even if we throw 2020 out, Flaherty averaged only 57 innings of work over the last two years. While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing-and-miss stuff and faded to a 17.8 percent strikeout rate. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. He posted a 195-117 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.216 WHiP, striking out 2147 batters with 695 walks in his 2567.1 innings. Sales unconventional windup seems to leave open the idea of Tommy John surgery or at least a serious injury, but he has averaged 30 starts per season since entering the rotation in 12. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. Cy Young awards, no-hitters, and ERA titles may be better methods for evaluating the 21st century pitcher than the sheer outdated statistic of wins.. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. It happens a lot. He missed large chunks of his playing career due to injuries, and while this has not always been a deal-breaker for Cooperstown, Wainwrights perfectly fine peak was hardly that of go-to example Sandy Koufax. Required fields are marked *. He trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, a grand slam in the first inning and a solo shot in the fourth. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. They cited various ailments that impacted Wainos performance. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? Look at that. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? And I finally reached the point where I just ignored the spin and started to interpret the lack of candor as a possible warning sign. Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). . Wainwright threw his sinker, cutter and curveball the most, and the velocity on all three pitches measured a significant drop-off from last season.